Commentary In my last column (“Will the stock market crash? Part One of Two”), I answered this question in the affirmative, on the grounds that the market was the second most overvalued in history according to Shiller’s CAPE Index, and it had the highest level of margin debt since the Great Depression. Both conditions set the market up for crashes in the past. So far this year, the market has fallen by just under 10 percent from its peak, and it’s now back to where it was in the middle of 2021—though it’s recovered slightly from its low before the Ukraine War began. Left to its own devices, the market would continue to crash. Even the 10 percent fall—before the war rally—leaves the market close to twice its long-term value on Shiller’s CAPE Index. Margin calls should be weighing on the market too, with margin debt at its highest level, …
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