Commentary At the end of every year, we receive numerous estimates of global GDP growth and inflation for the following year. Historically, in almost all cases, expectations of inflation and growth are too optimistic in December for the following year. If we look at the track record of central banks, they’re particularly poor at predicting inflation, while large supranational entities tend to err on the side of optimism in GDP estimates. The International Monetary Fund or the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, for example, have been particularly poor at estimating recessions, but mostly accurate at making long-term trend estimates. Contrary to popular belief, it seems that most forecasts are better at identifying long-term economic dynamics than short-term ones. Forecasting is a dirty job, but somebody has to do it. Economic forecasting is exceedingly difficult because there are numerous factors that can drastically change the course of a global economy …