Commentary
Recently the market has been struggling between recession or no recession, and whether there will be a recession, sooner or later. By definition, recession refers to the period when economic activity runs from peak to trough, about its trend level. Although it takes quite some skills to separate the trend and cyclical components from a time series, laymen would be able to tell if economic activity is near its peak or if it has peaked.
Intuitively, from leading indicators like stock indexes refusing to advance to lagging indicators like the unemployment rate refusing to further improve, we know the peak is imminent….