Commentary Could a Russian victory in Ukraine embolden China to invade Taiwan? Certainly many think so. But Moscow’s experiences in Ukraine are more likely to serve as a cautionary tale for Beijing when it comes to contemplating military operations against Taiwan. Russia’s botched invasion of Ukraine has many lessons for China. The first and most important, perhaps, is you had better win quickly. Increasingly, wars are decided rapidly—within days, if not hours. Russia’s failure to deliver a fatal blow to Ukraine—in particular, by occupying Kyiv or Kharkiv—in the first 48 hours has proved disastrous. The same adage could apply to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. If the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is unable to neutralize Taiwan’s defenses in the first hours of a war and secure a safe beachhead on the island, it could easily lose momentum and the advantage of surprise. The second lesson of Ukraine is don’t count …