By Alex Harris and Gwen Filosa From Miami Herald MIAMI—Tropical Storm Elsa’s projected track jogged a bit west early Monday—easing the threat for South Florida, including most of the Lower Florida Keys, which now appear likely to see a windy, wet sideswipe rather than a direct hit from a slightly stronger but small system. Elsa’s path will take it over most of central Cuba on Monday—where nearly 200,000 people have been evacuated—before it re-emerges in the Florida straits early Tuesday morning. On Monday morning, tropical storm watches on Florida’s west coast were upgraded to a warning and extended farther north. It’s potential Florida landfall site also shifted farther north overnight. As of the 11 a.m. ET advisory, Elsa looks like it will make landfall in Florida in Horseshoe Beach, north of the Suwannee River, Wednesday morning. It was about 20 miles east-southeast of Cayo Largo, Cuba, and about 140 miles …