Commentary The University of Michigan consumer confidence index fell to 82.8 in May, from 88.3 in April. More importantly, the current economic conditions index slumped to 90.8 from 97.2, and the consumer expectations index declined to 77.6 from 82.7. Hard data also questions the strength of the recovery. April retail sales were flat, with clothing down 5.1 percent, general merchandise store sales down 4.9 percent, leisure and sporting goods down 3.6 percent, and food and drink services up by just 3 percent. U.S. manufacturing output was also almost flat in April, rising just 0.4 percent month-on-month in April pushed by a 4 percent slump in motor vehicle production. You may think this isn’t that bad until you see that industrial capacity utilization came in at 74.9 percent in April, significantly below the pre-pandemic levels. Employment also questions the “strong recovery” thesis. Non-farm employment is still down 8.2 million, or 5.4 …