Commentary
Many of you may have noticed a recent trend whereby good economic news causes the stock market to fall. Theoretically, higher than expected gross domestic product (GDP), or lower than expected unemployment, would be good for the economy, corporate earnings, and the stock market. During normal times, and over the long run, that’s true. Recently, though, we’ve seen the opposite. So today I’m going to explain why the market has been moving in counterintuitive ways when we get important economic news.
While efficiency of labor and corporate earnings are key determinants of the economy and stock valuations, it’s interest rates that cause large short-term moves. There are many reasons for this, but two are important. First, higher interest rates lead to higher bond yields, which drains money out of the stock market and then moved into bonds. It’s an influencer of supply and demand between different investment vehicles….
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