Commentary The Kyodo News reported on Dec. 23 that the U.S. and Japanese militaries have written a draft plan for a “Taiwan contingency” and may soon draw up an “official” plan. The uninitiated might think the Americans and the Japanese are finally going to buckle down and develop a real joint operational plan to handle a Taiwan contingency. However, after spending a few decades of observing the trajectory of Japan’s defensive capabilities, it’s easy to become a “glass half-empty” kind of guy. And a closer look at the plan—something that should have been in place years ago—doesn’t exactly inspire excitement. The news account is admittedly fragmentary and confusing. According to the report, the plan would be set in motion once the Japanese government declares the situation around Taiwan to be serious enough to “undermine the peace and security of Japan.” Once that happens, U.S. Marines are allowed to set up …