Commentary
In Part 1, I suggested a weaker dollar may not lead to the bullish outcomes many investors expect in 2023. I will build on that thesis here in Part II, and bonds will win in the first half of 2023 and stocks in the second half.
The big question heading into 2023 is the dreaded “R” word. Can the U.S. economy avoid a recession amid the most aggressive rate-hiking campaign by the Federal Reserve since 1980?
Anything is certainly possible. However, with economic activity affected by higher rates and inflation, the odds of a recession seem elevated. This was a point made in Part 1:…