Commentary A massive inflationary storm is on its way in this country. It’s bad now, but it’s only going to worsen sooner than later. Why would this be? There are several factors, but the biggest factor is the war. Not the war in Ukraine, but rather the war against the dollar. There are many moving…
Investing Lesson of Math Learned the Hard Way
Commentary The one investing lesson that every investor must learn in surviving the long game is how math works. I recently received an email from a reader suggesting that the 2021 decline in the market is “no big deal” because of the stellar returns over the last decade. He quoted a snippet of an article…
Inflation Is Killing the Working Class
Commentary Inflation “is destroying working folks’ pocketbooks and devaluing the wages they earn and the root cause … is way too much government spending, too many social programs … and vastly too much money creation by the Federal Reserve,” Larry Kudlow, former director of the U.S. National Economic Council, said on Feb. 14. During the…
DeFi, Yield Farming, and Ponzi Scheme?
In today’s local interest rate environment, many investors have come across DeFi staking or cryptocurrency yield farming promising interest rates earned in the high single digits, double-digits, and even triple-digits. Compared to the paltry interest rate earned in most mainstream asset classes, conventional wisdom would suggest those rates are too good to be true. What…
Businesses Will Resent Democrats Distracting From Inflation
The notion that the leak of the Supreme Court’s draft opinion overturning the 1973 Roe v. Wade abortion decision has something to do with, of all things, inflation at first blush seems preposterous. And yet, the motive of the mystery figure responsible for the worst information breach within the halls of the Marble Palace at…
Federal Basic Income in America Is Not an Option
Commentary I have studied universal basic income (UBI) for years. In fact, at one time I was considering a research project about the benefits of UBI. I thought basic income was worthwhile with important core tenants (healthcare for children, poverty alleviation, etc.), but over time I realized I was wrong. Basic income in America is…
History Shows The Fed Would Be Cutting Rates By Now
Commentary It is a study in confoundingly sharp contrasts. On the one side, last week the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) “shocked” the media, anyway, by releasing its estimate for U.S. real GDP during 2022’s first three months. Disaster. Negative. A sickly economy already showing signs of the demand destruction markets have been pricing…
The Flation Debate: A ‘Hawkish’ Update?
Commentary The Federal Open Market Committee has just commenced its latest meeting to set monetary policy. Everyone, their dog, and even the fleas on those dogs expect the central bank to notably ratchet up their inflation-fighting efforts come May 4 around 2:00 p.m. ET. Specifically, this will come in the form of 1) a 50-basis…
April Jobs Headline Is Good, But Deeper Dive Disconcerting
May 6, 2022
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April jobs printed at 428,000 new jobs, above the consensus estimate of 380,000. The unemployment rate was 3.6 percent. The Labor Participation Rate was just 62.2 percent, down 20 basis points (bps, or 1/100th of a percentage point) from last month. February and March jobs were revised downward by 39,000 net jobs. The U6, which…
A Recession Is on the Horizon
Commentary The recent disappointing report on the gross domestic product (GDP) may reflect statistical particulars more than the immediate onset of a recession. But the real thing nonetheless lies on the horizon, probably in the next 18–24 months. Inflationary pressures are the culprit. They make recession all but inevitable. The downturn will arrive in one…
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