Commentary Markets are in a state of heightened anxiety as the Federal Reserve is shifting to a tightening stance with an abruptness not seen in decades. Since just last September, the Federal Funds rate expected to prevail in mid-2023 has increased by 1.25 percent according to futures markets. While rapidly shifting its market guidance on the federal funds rate, the Fed has also announced an end to quantitative easing—the central bank’s program of buying Treasury securities—and has signaled a rapid pivot to quantitative tightening (QT), the sale of Treasury securities from the Fed’s bloated portfolio. Markets are right to be unsettled by the Fed’s shift in interest rate policy, which has been effected with all the deftness of a dozing driver yanking the steering wheel, as he awakens to the expanding headlights of an 18-wheeler bearing down on him on a dark country road. But concerns over the effects of …
Quantitative Tightening is a Nothingburger
February 10, 2022
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