Commentary
For reasons I cannot explain, there was widespread shock at the new GDP numbers for the first quarter. They revealed a 1.1 percent growth rate, which is a crawl and much lower than the experts anticipated. And the new data points to an inexorable reality.
Certainly the recession will be obvious by the summer and undeniable by the winter. It will be all anyone talks about starting in 2024 and following.
Real GDP: Percent change from preceding quarter. (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)
It’s possible to make a credible case that we are already in one. Indeed, you can backdate your analysis to observe that we never really left the lockdown depression of the spring of 2020. All the rest has been an illusion kept alive by paper money and government spending. This time, however, the dramatic slowdown traces to hardcore factors like factory orders, housing, and investment….