Commentary
The economy is faltering, and markets are becoming chaotic. In spite of this, the mainstream financial media is busy convincing investors that the bull market is solidly intact.
The 10-2 Treasury yield curve inverted on Tuesday, March 29. This inversion occurred for the first time since September 2019. Meanwhile, the 30–5-year Treasury yield spread also inverted in late March, the first time such an inversion has occurred since 2006. Such inversions nearly always signal the economy has weakened sharply and is headed for a recession.
But right on cue, Wall Street apologists are data mining parts of the yield curve to try and explain why the economy is strong and that a recession isn’t in the cards. They try to deflect your attention away from the most salient 10-2 curve inversion and instead point to the 3-month, 10-year curve spread to dismiss the whole flattening and inversion thing going on everywhere else. Why? Well, because they always need an excuse to stay bullish.
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