Commentary
Could the consensus view of a “no recession” scenario be wrong? As portfolio managers, this is the question we ask ourselves daily. Since the lows of last October, the technical backdrop has improved markedly, as discussed last week in “Bear Trap.” To wit:
“Our most critical bullish signals are the short- and intermediate-term moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicators. We post this weekly chart in our website’s 4019k) plan management section. Both sets of weekly MACD indicators have registered buy signals from levels lower than during the financial crisis [of 2008–09]. The market has also broken above both weekly moving averages and, as noted above, held the long-term bullish trend line.”…