Commentary
The most recent survey from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) is sending a strong signal of an economic recession. In 2019, the NFIB survey, combined with an inverted yield curve, suggested an impending recession. In 2020, those signals became a reality.
As in 2019, we see many of the same warning signals from the NFIB survey again combined with a high percentage of yield-curve inversions. Notably, out of the 10 yield spreads we track, which are the most sensitive to economic outcomes, 90 percent are inverted.
(Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis / Refinitv chart: RealInvestmentAdvice.com)
A surge of analysis suggests the economy may have a “soft landing,” or, rather, will avoid a recession, due to the solid monthly employment reports. It is worth noting that while those employment reports remain strong, we should consider the rapid decline in growth. As we have stated previously, the trend of the data is far more important than the monthly number….