This year, the U.S. economy might face a “slowcession” rather than a recession, according to a new report from Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.
While the growing base-case scenario among investors, market analysts, and economists is an economic downturn, Moody’s expects “halting growth and higher unemployment” in 2023, effectively “avoiding a downturn.”
With the Federal Reserve continuing to raise the benchmark federal funds rate from nearly 0 percent last year to a current range of 4.25–4.5 percent—the Survey of Economic Predictions (SEP) suggests a peak of 5.1 percent this year—the U.S. economy will be “sure to have a difficult 2023.” However, sound economic fundamentals and moderating inflation should help the country avert a downturn….