Commentary
The latest estimates from consensus for the main Latin American economies show a continent facing a lost decade. The region’s GDP growth has been downgraded yet again to a modest 1.1 percent for 2023, with rising inflation and weakening gross fixed investment. Considering that the region was already recovering at a slower pace than other emerging markets, the outlook is exceedingly worrying.
The poor growth and high inflation expectations are even worse when we consider that consensus estimates still consider a tailwind coming from rising commodity prices and more exports due to the China re-opening.
How can a region with such high potential as Latin America be condemned to stagflation? The answer is simple. The rise of populist governments in Colombia, Chile, and Brazil have increased concerns about investor security, property rights, and monetary discipline….