Commentary
New jobs created printed at 311,000 on Mar. 10, according to the Establishment Survey, far exceeding market expectations of 205,000 jobs. The Household Survey printed lower at 150,000. Net revisions were down 34,000 from December and January. The overwhelming majority of jobs were in the lower-wage sector, and job losses occurred in some of the higher wage sectors, as illustrated in our exclusive chart of Jobs Creation by Average Weekly Wages.
(Source:  The Stuyvesant Square Consultancy, “February Jobs by Average Weekly Wages (Establishment), 2023)
The Federal Reserve
Notwithstanding the recent jobs report, the overall focus of the markets has been on the Federal Reserve. We had predicted in November that the terminal rate would settle somewhere between 5 percent and 6 percent, likely closer to 6 percent, and even possibly as high as 7 percent. We reiterate that view today. In his testimony earlier this week, Federal Reserve Chair Powell left little doubt that the Fed was set to increase rates, but would be data-dependent. Members of the policy-making arm of the Fed, the Federal Open Market Committee, will supply their dot-plot projections at the next Fed meeting on Mar. 21–22. Those projections will help the public judge the Fed’s future direction….