Commentary
The expression used in the title conveys a sense of foreboding and early warning of trouble. It comes from the time before electronic sensory equipment when coal miners used these fragile birds to warn them of the presence of deadly methane gas in the mine shaft. If the bird collapsed, the miners had an early warning of extreme danger.
Now comes news of declining South Korean exports to the United States, Europe, and China and the strong likelihood that this important Asian economy has entered recession for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic.
In February, the most recent period for which complete data are available, all South Korean exports stood some 15 percent below year-ago levels. Sales to China fell some 30 percent below year-ago levels, a hint that the Chinese industry is not operating at full capacity. Exports of semiconductors stand almost 50 percent below year-ago levels, a powerful hint that global activity has slowed. The nation’s index of factory activity stood at 48.5 in February, well below the level of 50 that demarcates between growth and contraction….