NEW YORK—A closely monitored section of the U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted on Tuesday for the first time since September 2019, a reflection of market concerns that the Federal Reserve could tip the economy into recession as it battles soaring inflation. For a brief moment, the yield on the two-year Treasury note was higher than that of the benchmark 10-year note. That part of the curve is viewed by many as a reliable signal that a recession could come in the next year or two. The 2-year, 10-year spread briefly fell as low as minus 0.03 of a basis point, before bouncing back above zero to 5 basis points, according to data by Refinitiv. While the brief inversion in August and early September 2019 was followed by a downturn in 2020, no one foresaw the closure of businesses and economic collapse due to the spread of COVID-19. Investors are now …
Inversion of Key US Yield Curve Slice Is a Recession Alarm
March 31, 2022
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