The recession has become the talk of the town again in the U.S. economy and financial markets, with many leading downturn indicators flashing red.
In March, The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index slumped to its lowest level since November 2020, declining by 1.2 percent and deepening into contraction territory.
The spread between the two- and 10-year Treasury yields, which has forecast nearly every recession since the Second World War, settled the April 20 trading session at negative 60 basis points. The gap has widened since July 2022. The Federal Reserve’s preferred recession measurement—the three-month and 10-year yields—finished the session at negative 158 basis points….