Commentary 
In what may be the worst timing in its checkered history, the Federal Reserve has begun taking money out of the economy at the very time the economy is shrinking. The ill timing of the Fed’s latest move raises the main question investors would like answered—how long will Fed policy stay restrictive?
Speculating about the timing and magnitude of the Fed’s policy moves is clearly subjective, but so, it appears, is Fed policy. The timing of any shift away from restraint depends on the magnitude of the downturn and upcoming inflation numbers.
The magnitude of the downturn could be moderate, but the wrong Fed moves would make it severe. Government policies regulating energy production and efficiency and other regulatory barriers have already undermined America’s historical strength….