Commentary Ned Davis Research estimates that a 2 percent yield in the U.S. 10-year bond could lead the Nasdaq to fall 20 percent, and with it the entire stock market globally. A 2 percent yield can cause such disruption? How did we get to such a situation? Central banks have artificially depressed sovereign bond yields for years. Now, a small rise in yields can cause a massive market slump that evolves into a financial crisis. Quantitative easing was designed as a tool to provide liquidity to a scared market and benefit from exceptionally attractive valuations of the lowest-risk assets—sovereign bonds. Central banks would cut rates and purchase these high-quality, low-risk assets from banks, thus allowing financial entities to lend more to the businesses and families and strengthen confidence in the economy. Once financial conditions improved, central banks would reduce their balance sheet and normalize policy. This never happened. Central banks …
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