Commentary
The debate over the state of the economy has quieted. With the midterm elections done, the side claiming that a recession had already begun has less need to make its case, while the other side has less need to refute it. But if the politically obsessed have turned away from such matters, economics still matters, and so also does the parsing of the arguments used in that mostly political debate. The picture such an effort paints is far from upbeat.
Signs of economic weakness, if not outright recession, are undeniable. The real gross domestic product (GDP) fell in the year’s first two quarters. For many, that is the definition of recession. Though real GDP rose modestly during the third quarter, neither the paltry 2.6 percent annual growth rate nor the underlying detail did much to contradict the weakness described earlier in the year….