JOHANNESBURG/BENGALURU—The shift in global inflation expectations from transitory to sticky will spare emerging market currencies a sell-off in the next few months as central banks consider or deliver near-term interest rate hikes, a Reuters poll of strategists found. While several remain under intense pressure, many emerging market currencies are likely to mark a stronger final quarter of 2021—as they have in previous years—especially the South African rand, Russian rouble, and Thai baht. This comes despite the U.S. Federal Reserve looking set to slowly taper its $120 billion a month bond purchase programme later this year, already sending U.S. bond yields and the dollar higher in anticipation of a subsequent rate hike late next year. “The persistency of EM inflation is forcing a reaction from central banks, and while nominal carry for EMFX is rising, real interest rates are struggling to enter positive territory,” noted Jonny Goulden, emerging market strategist at …
Higher Rates Set to Protect Emerging Market Currencies From Fed Taper: Reuters Poll
October 8, 2021
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Business & EconomyEconomiesemerging market currenciesFederal ReserveinflationInvestmentMarketsReuters Poll
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