Commentary
Economic activity in the first quarter disappointed. Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a paltry 1.1 percent annual pace between January and March.
That was better news than a zero-to-negative figure that would have indicated recession but a poor showing, nonetheless. The detail behind this overall measure painted an even less attractive picture, suggesting that recession in coming months and quarters is more likely than not.
Worries about the economy’s underlying strength first emerged this time last year when the Commerce Department reported a 1.6 percent decline in real GDP. When the second quarter report showed another drop of 0.6 percent, many in the business and financial communities declared that the economy was in recession. The White House objected to this assessment….