Commentary Retail investors continue to eagerly buy every dip or decline in stocks in hopes that stock prices will soon make new all-time highs. While they’re throwing money at stocks, they can’t see the warning signs that financial conditions are tightening. When financial conditions become too tight, risk assets tend to crash. Investors are willfully blind to these warning signs as they believe stocks can and will only go up. Yet, the U.S. dollar is slowly rising, and long-term Treasury yields are falling. These two indicate easy financial conditions are behind us and investors should heed their warning. With the Federal Reserve expected to announce an increase in its balance sheet taper at its Dec. 14–15 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, financial conditions are going to tighten even quicker. What retail investors fail to see is how a rising dollar and falling Treasury yields are screaming that current and future …
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