The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver two back-to-back half-point interest rate hikes in May and June to tackle runaway inflation, according to economists polled by Reuters who also say the probability of a recession next year is 40 percent. With the unemployment rate near a record low, inflation the highest in four decades, and a surge in global commodity prices set to persist, most analysts say the Fed needs to move quickly to keep price pressures under control. The latest April 4–8 Reuters poll of more than 100 economists forecast two half-point rate rises this year, the first such move since 1994, taking the federal funds rate to 1.25 percent – 1.50 percent by the June meeting. That brings the end-year prediction from the March Reuters poll at least three months forward, and more in line with interest rate futures pricing. A strong majority, or 85 of 102 economists, forecast …