Commentary
Long-term computer modeling (LTCM) is most likely to be predictive in systems that involve a limited number of hard physical science factors. In those areas, the laws of physics are known. Computers can draw straight lines between each known variable, and the final endpoint of the calculation is likely to be true.
LTCM doesn’t work well in complicated organic systems. This predictive value is further decreased when humans are introduced into these organic systems. Envy, greed, power, narcissism, mania, depression, oedipal issues, self-destructive behavior, fear, anxiety, courage, and employment concerns complicate LTCM in human systems.
Examples of the poor predictive value of LTCM in organic systems include:
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