Commentary
Hiring remains strong. Some have pointed to this recent robust jobs growth as a reason to downplay other signs of economic weakness and dismiss talk of a recession. At least one headline used the jobs figures to forecast a “soft landing” for the economy.
But a deeper look into the production figures points to a very different direction. It suggests an unsustainable pattern of labor hoarding that will force a recessionary adjustment in the not-too-distant future.
The popular Labor Department “Employment Situation” report feeds the optimistic thinking. In December, its national survey of employers indicated that the roster of workers has risen by some 223,000. A separate survey of households was still more impressive. It recorded an employment gain of 717,000. Jobs growth figures for recent months fall short of monthly employment gains recorded in 2021 and the first half of 2022. Still, they exceed broad historical averages by a wide margin. With data like this, it is easy to see why many conclude that business is building up its staffing for a major expansion in production….