Commentary
This article provides some concrete suggestions to enhance Taiwan’s deterrence capabilities against the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) plans. The author hopes the Taiwanese government reviews these recommendations for immediate consideration and future planning.
Military Deterrence
What is military deterrence? According to U.S. Joint Publication 3.0 Joint Operations, deterrence “prevents adversary action through the presentation of a credible threat of unacceptable counteraction and belief that the cost of the action outweighs the perceived benefits.”
Deterrence, according to Air Force Doctrine, consists of three elements: capability, credibility, and communication. “Capability consists of having the means to influence behavior.
“Credibility consists of maintaining a level of believability that the proposed actions may actually be employed. Credibility depends on the appearance of the deterrent from the adversary’s point of view. For effective deterrence, credibility hinges on having a convincing capability to execute a variety of … options and a willingness to employ these options.
“Communication consists of transmitting the intended message to the desired audience. For effective deterrence, this messaging should articulate … [a country’s] resolve to employ capabilities that deny the benefits of adversary action and impose costs on them.” For example, country A attempts to deter country B by clearly communicating that country A has the capability and credibility to make the probability of country B’s military success low and the costs of attack high. This message also must be comprehended by country B’s leadership. The United Kingdom’s Joint Doctrine of deterrence also uses a similar concept of capability, credibility, communication, and comprehension (understanding)….