Commentary
When the spring quarter’s gross domestic product (GDP) showed a decline, a great media debate ensued about whether the economy is already in recession. Those who say yes point to the commonly held definition that a recession is two consecutive quarters of declining real GDP, and the news seems to fit that criterion.
The White House, understandably, resists this view, and references more subtle definitions. But for those who want to live in the real world, this debate smells of sterile semantics. Reality is clear: the U.S. economy is weak, and if not already in recession is likely to go into one relatively soon. Indeed, the economic harm of inflation and the financial strains of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) efforts to fight it make recession all but inevitable….