News Analysis China’s aging crisis may be the final blow to an embattled economy—already plagued by a debt crisis, real estate bubble, and sluggish growth. China’s GDP growth is expected to drop to about 5 percent this year, as opposed to the 10 percent of previous decades. Some experts believe that next year, growth may drop below the 5 percent threshold. In the first three quarters of 2021, onshore defaults by Chinese non-financial companies rose by 19 percent, hitting $15.5 billion; while offshore defaults rose 28 percent to $7.8 billion. Real estate, which comprises 25 to 30 percent of the Chinese economy, is facing a default crisis, particularly from Evergrande, a property developer with a potential of $300 billion of defaults. Inflation is rising. Consumer spending is waning. Manufacturing is down. And curbs on the property sector threaten to deprive local governments of $1 trillion in income from land sales. …
China’s Aging Crisis Is the Final Blow to Its Economy
December 1, 2021
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