Commentary One of the key pillars of the consensus bullish view about 2021 is the Chinese recovery, supported by optimistic estimates of growth in services and exports. The details in the official February Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) show a different picture. It seems that the data for the Chinese economy, especially in services and exports, is inconsistent with a 6 percent GDP growth as most analysts expect for 2021. February’s figures were surprisingly weak, especially because the majority of economists already expected a slowdown due to the holidays. The consensus message is that we should not worry about this, because the PMIs reflect an expected seasonal weakness and the effects of the virus case increase before the Lunar New Year. However, those two factors were already embedded in consensus estimates. The official manufacturing PMI fell in February to 50.6 from 51.3 in January. A figure above 50 means expansion, and …