According to a March 24 legislative briefing by Taiwan’s National Security Bureau (NSB) Director-General Chen Ming-tong, China is unlikely to invade Taiwan in the fall of 2022. Director Chen cited several reasons for his judgment, including the upcoming 20th Congress, the Ukraine war, China’s COVID resurgence, and China’s economic challenges. “In the big picture, [the prospect of China’s invading Taiwan in the fall] is not likely,” Chen told lawmakers. Beijing has been studying the Ukraine War, and seeing that “Russia originally planned to take down Kyiv in four days but now have stepped into a quagmire,” it likely would be “more cautious” with making military moves, Chen said. “Plus, COVID-19 is resurging in China, and China’s economy has declined,” he noted, indicating that “the communist regime’s focus is on ‘maintaining stability’ before the 20th Party Congress.” “[The CCP] has never ruled out taking over Taiwan by force, but it’s the …