Commentary
A U.S. government friend involved in Indo-Pacific defense matters asked me the question a lot of people are wondering about.
Following U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei on Aug. 2-3, China launched a series of aggressive moves targeting Taiwan, most visibly unprecedented military exercises. So he asked: “Running up to the 20th Party Congress to be held towards the end of the year, do you think the PRC [People’s Republic of China] will ramp up? Keep the ‘new normal’? Or decrease its pressure on Taiwan?”
Here’s what I told him:
China is on a timeline for seizing Taiwan. It will move faster or slower as opportunity allows. When does the timeline “end”? By 2030 or sooner—and maybe much sooner….