Commentary My tour of China with Australian journalists in 1981 concluded with a tour of the Shenzhen Free Trade Zone—which at that stage was little more than a mass of concrete being laid by the Australian company CSR. If we saw China’s past in Shanghai, with the ludicrous decision of its economic boss—when he “followed…
China’s Rise and Inflation’s Fall From 1982 Until COVID
April 29, 2022
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Scary Report on the US Economy
Commentary A frightening economic report has come out of the Commerce Department: U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) fell at a 1.4 percent annual rate during the first quarter of the year. Suddenly, the prospect of recession has become very real. A slowdown in the recovery was already evident, and recession is indeed on the…
Netflix’s Crash Triggers Concerns for Spotify Too
Netflix, Inc’s share price crash has pulled down other media stocks emulating the streaming giant’s moves. Spotify Technology S.A. valuation is also losing its mojo even before Netflix’s crash, the Financial Times wrote. Spotify’s market capitalization is about twice its 2021 revenue, while Netflix’s market cap is about three times its 2021 revenue. Spotify and Netflix, pioneers of streaming in…
Elon Musk Will Increase Twitters’ Profitability
Commentary “Elon has not, so far, shown a very clear or convincing vision for what exactly he would do better, but that might not be the point—having someone who can actually run the company, make decisions and require excellence would be a big change.” Benedict Evans, technology analyst, 4/25/2022 When Elon Musk made a nearly…
First Quarter GDP Prints Down 1.4 Percent; Likely an Import Anomaly
Topline GDP printed down 1.4 percent versus a consensus estimate of 1.1 percent up. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) were sharply lower, year-on-year, as the economy normalizes The backlog of container ships that stood offshore at the end of last year has largely been cleared, and the U.S. has imported more oil and gas at higher…
Timing of the Next US Recession
Commentary The most threatening thing for the market and economy is no doubt the upcoming rate hike. A rate hike per se is not something scary, but a series of actions can ultimately lead to recession. True, the yield curve is still steep based on the most predictive tenors 30-year or 10-year minus 3-month. Yet…
To Fight Russia, Europe’s Regimes Risk Impoverishment and Recession for Europe
Commentary European politicians are eager to be seen as “doing something” to oppose the Russian regime following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Most European regimes have wisely concluded—Polish and Baltic recklessness notwithstanding—that provoking a military conflict with nuclear-armed Russia is not a good idea. So, “doing something” consists primarily of trying to punish Moscow by cutting Europeans off…
Pemberton’s French Wine Coca & Other Investment Adventures
Commentary “Despite his notoriously controversial personality, Detroit Tiger legend Ty Cobb holds the highest career batting average of any player in MLB history at .366. In 24 seasons (22 with the Tigers), Cobb amassed 4,189 hits, scored 2,245 runs, and stole 897 bases. Cobb won 11 batting titles, one MVP award, and was one of…
Is ESG Investing an Expensive Scam?
Commentary When you hear the acronym ESG, do your eyes glaze over? If so, you’re not alone. For some, ESG represents progress. For others, however, it’s nothing but a scam. Nevertheless, the ESG movement is picking up steam, with an increasing number of corporations jumping on board. The acronym, which stands for environmental, social, and…
Don’t Be Bearish. The Inevitable End of Bad Advice
Commentary “Don’t be bearish.” That was the message delivered by a “Wall Street Journal” article in August 2021, discussing the “new generation” of “financial media stars.” To wit: “As the U.S. retreated amid the pandemic to its couches, millions of would-be stock pickers—some flush with stimulus cash—fired up social-media and messaging apps and dove headlong into the…
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