Commentary It takes time for confirmation. Short run, high-frequency data is inherently noisy, so to attempt drawing any reasonable conclusion you cannot rely on such data alone. One month or even several for what might at first appear to be an emerging trend can change or vanish in whatever data with no prior warning. However,…
Oil Price Reversions: The Inevitable Outcome Of Recessions
Commentary An oil price and energy stock price reversion may be starting. The reason is that oil price reversions are the inevitable outcome of economic recessions. Of course, such is due to the previous price spikes that create demand destruction in the economy. The chart shows the price of oil since 1946. Source: St. Louis…
Israel-Europe Gas Deal Will Transform European Geopolitics and Energy Security
Commentary This week, Israel officially positioned itself as a natural supplier to Europe, one of the largest markets on earth. The announcement of an agreement signed by Israel, Egypt, and the European Union on June 15 at the East Mediterranean Gas Forum will be a huge deal for both Europe and Israel. The Europeans’ drive…
Washington’s Bleak Outlook
Commentary It makes for a depressing reading. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) anticipates that federal spending will continue to outstrip revenues. Historically large annual deficits will add to the nation’s already heavy accumulation of public debt so that by 2032, outstanding government debt held by the public will rise to 110 percent of the nation’s…
Inflation or Depression: Pick Your Poison
News Analysis At last we have something that really brings the American people together: inflation. Everyone hates it. It’s the whole topic of conversation at stores, on streets, at the park, or any setting. Want to make a friend? Just walk up to anyone and start complaining about prices. They will join right in and…
The Great Reset: Turning Back the Clock on Civilization
Commentary The COVID-19 pandemic featured an unprecedented fusion of the interests of large and powerful corporations with the power of the state. Democratically elected politicians in many countries failed to represent the interests of their own citizens and uphold their own constitutions and charters of rights. Specifically, they supported lockdown measures, vaccine mandates, the suppression…
The American Tipping Point
June 16, 2022
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News Analysis In 2000, Malcolm Gladwell wrote a book called “The Tipping Point” that has since been rolled into the conventional wisdom. The idea is that viral products start very small, gain new adherents, tap into a special something that relates to fear of missing out, and the climb goes higher and higher until that…
The Economic Meltdown Has Roots in Lockdown
Commentary American’s capacity for denial is truly a thing to behold. For at least 27 months, it should have been obvious that we were headed for a grave crisis. Not only that: the crisis was already here in March 2020. For weird reasons, some people, many people, imagined that governments could just shut down an…
The Fed Should Rely on Market Signals Not Ouija Boards
Commentary Only recently did Federal Reserve Board members realize their purchases of more than $4.5 trillion in securities over the past two years were excessive. This week they will try to undo their mistake by sharply increasing interest rates and selling securities. Specifically, the Fed plans to raise its target interest rate from 0.8 percent…
NFIB Survey Rings Recession Alarm Bells
Commentary The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) signals a recession is coming—again. The reason I say “again” is because, in September 2019, we discussed these same signals: “Today, we once again see many of the early warnings. If you have been paying attention to the trend of the economic data, and the yield curve, the warnings are…
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