Category: Business Columnists

Washington’s Flawed New Law: Part 3

September 2, 2022
Business & MarketsBusiness Columnistshealth careInflation Reduction ActOpinionThinking About ChinaViewpoints
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Commentary This article is the last of a three-part series on the new Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which takes up the proposed new health care rules in which the government lodges its inflation reduction claims. The first part of this series examined the law’s lavish spending on green initiatives. The second part assessed its dubious…

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A Guide to Shorting Stocks

September 1, 2022
Business & MarketsBusiness ColumnistsenergyOpinionrecessionstocksViewpoints
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Commentary  In an article on hedging, I pointed out that an investor can use short positions to reduce or eliminate specific risks. I often get questions from friends and amateur investors on how to short a stock. It’s an important tool for any investor, and I think the subject deserves a more complete treatment. The…

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Much More of Much Less Demand

September 1, 2022
AnalysisBusiness & MarketsBusiness ColumnistsOpinionrecession
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Commentary  ADP wanted to get its employment numbers right, or as close to accurate as it could possibly reach. The payroll processing company had been maintaining its own set of labor estimates from all the way back to the start of the 21st century. Unsatisfied with how the data performed over the last couple of unusual…

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What If We Never Left Recession?

September 1, 2022
AnalysisBusiness & MarketsBusiness Columnistsdepressioninflationlabor productivityOpinionrecessionU.S. economy
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Commentary There was some hope that the output revisions at month’s end would put to rest the recession debate. Instead, they only added more confusion because we still experienced two quarters of declining GDP as adjusted for inflation, which means recession. Those inflation adjustments can be a real buzz kill. The Bureau of Labor Statistics…

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Earnings Decline–Likely More to Go Before We Are Done

August 31, 2022
Business & MarketsBusiness Columnistscompany profitsearnings declineenergyFederal Reserveinflationjerome powellOpinionrecessionViewpoints
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Commentary  Last year I wrote an article discussing that 2022 earnings estimates were too optimistic, given the impending reversal of the economic “sugar rush” of massive liquidity injections. With the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates, the phenomenon of high inflation, and slower economic growth in the mix, a continuation of said earnings decline remains highly probable….

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What If?

August 30, 2022
Business & MarketsBusiness ColumnistseconomyFederal Reserveglobalistsinflationmonetary policyOpinionPolicies & ImpactsrecessionTrumpUSViewpointsWorld
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Commentary Probably the most important thing in forecasting is the ability to ask: What if something is not how you think it is? Open speculation on world developments is the key to establishing a position, where basically nothing can really surprise you. And at that point, you have come so far as a forecaster. The…

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Paradigm Shift in the US Labor Market

August 30, 2022
Business & MarketsBusiness Columnistseconomygig workersinflationlabor marketOpinionThinking About ChinaViewpoints
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Commentary The working paradigm in America seems to be shifting as unemployment and staff shortages exist alongside workers refusing to work and others obtaining their dream job through the gig economy. Some media have claimed that the reasons behind the shortage of workers are systemic racism, lack of childcare, and a mismatch between workers’ skills…

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How Bad of a Recession? It Depends on the Consumer

August 29, 2022
Business & MarketsBusiness Columnistsconsumer spendingdollar storeseconomyemploymentinflationMarketsrecessionUSUS NewsWalmart
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Commentary Consumer spending drives two-thirds of the U.S. economy. But the resolve of American consumers will be put to the test. The stock market, tugged by fears of high interest rates, has gyrated most of the year. Year-over-year inflation has risen to heights not seen in more than 40 years. The bottom is threatening to…

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With Money Rates Down, ‘Something’ Is Up

August 29, 2022
Business & MarketsBusiness ColumnistseconomyinflationInvestmentLIBORmoneymoney ratesOpinionrecessionrepo ratesSOFRT-billsViewpoints
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Commentary We have all been taught to associate low money rates with stimulus, and especially high money rates with trouble. And that can be true under certain circumstances. This theoretical world of easy interpretation doesn’t exist outside of the media or central bank econometric models. History—even recent history—at the very least cautions for a more…

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Is the Fed Panicking or Bluffing?

August 29, 2022
AnalysisBusiness & MarketsBusiness ColumnistsFederal Reserveinflationinterest ratesjerome powellOpinionrecessionU.S. economy
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Commentary The big takeaway from the Fed meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming—in person this time after two years of staying home and staying safe—was that the Fed is serious about stopping inflation. The message to the media was firm and unified. There will be no stopping this Fed until the target of 2 percent is…

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