Commentary We likely have only begun to experience the dangerous pattern of high inflation feeding on itself. Price increases of the current magnitude are something unknown in the lives of most of the public, and the trend of rising costs is proving stubborn. Food prices were up 0.8 percent month-to-month despite a slight fall in…
A Banking Crisis Looms
Commentary My columns have turned rather apocalyptic of late, but for a valid reason. Just this week, we got confirmation that our financial system is, again, at the brink of collapse, when the Bank of England (BoE) was forced to enact, de facto, a bailout of the pension funds of the United Kingdom. On Sept….
Interest Rates Will Go Higher
Commentary Financial markets sank when the Federal Reserve (Fed) added 0.75 percentage points to its benchmark federal funds rate on Sept. 21. Markets, having anticipated just this rate increase, responded less to it than to what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell promised for the future. He not only indicated additional rate hikes, but revealed how ready…
America’s ‘Technical Recession’ Was Really Just the Beginning
Commentary In a matter of months, the future hasn’t just dimmed, it has gone black. Think back to the end of last year, or even the first few months of this year. The U.S. economy’s “technical recession” was a complete surprise. Even though gasoline and food prices had been pushed higher along with those for…
Key Economic Questions Ahead of China’s National Congress
Commentary Chinese investors have been battered this year so far. They will watch closely the upcoming twice-a-decade Chinese Communist Party (CCP) national congress in October for signs of a shift in economic policy. There are numerous headwinds facing China’s economy—rolling COVID-related lockdowns, a real estate market downturn, ongoing trade issues with the United States, Beijing’s…
Hey, Recession Isn’t So Bad, Says the Washington Post
Commentary You know it’s going to happen. The Biden administration spent months saying there will be no recession. When it finally came in the technical data, they said that it’s not true. It’s only a matter of time before they admit it is here. At that point, they will claim it’s a good thing. This…
The US Gets Tough on China’s IPOs and They Shift to Europe
September 28, 2022
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auditBusiness & MarketsBusiness ColumnistsChinaIPOsOpinionThinking About ChinaU.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)Wall Street
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Commentary The United States is getting tough on China’s initial public offerings (IPOs) on Wall Street, so those IPOs are going to Europe. That’s finance for you. Go to where the suckers are. After about $100 billion in international investment in U.S.-listed Chinese companies over two decades, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is…
The Reason That Good Economic News Is Bad for the Market
September 28, 2022
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Business & MarketsBusiness ColumnistseconomymarketMarketsOpinionrecessionstocksTreasury yieldU.S. economyUSViewpoints
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Commentary Many of you may have noticed a recent trend whereby good economic news causes the stock market to fall. Theoretically, higher than expected gross domestic product (GDP), or lower than expected unemployment, would be good for the economy, corporate earnings, and the stock market. During normal times, and over the long run, that’s true….
China Trade: A Global Bellwether
Commentary China these days can serve as a global economic bellwether, and the direction it points is far from encouraging. As the world’s great exporter, its growth depends less on its domestic conditions than on what is happening in the United States and Europe. And because China sources heavily elsewhere in Asia, its export issues…
The Fed Fears Something Worse Than a Bear Market
September 27, 2022
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Analysisbear marketBusiness & MarketsBusiness ColumnistsFederal ReserveinflationOpinionrecessionstock marketU.S. economy
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Commentary The strategy of buying the dip went on for months, with unrelenting hope that this was all surely temporary. The economy was opening. Congress was spending. The Fed surely would not crash the markets before the November election. All will be well. No reason to panic. Not even weekly warning by the Fed would…
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