Commentary The existence of the Federal Reserve is a serious national problem. It’s funding uncontrolled debt expansion. It enables the global military empire and war. It tempts every politician and bureaucrat to believe that there are no limits. It creates the illusion that anything else is possible for both government and the big corporate empires…
Growing China-Middle East Economic Ties Cannot be Ignored
Commentary The fireworks were flying during the recent China and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit in Riyadh. Several high profile business deals were announced between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in Beijing and the GCC—traditionally and until recently a strong ally of the United States—that could help shape the landscape of international investments in the…
The Rise of India
June 24, 2023
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birth rateBusiness & MarketsBusiness ColumnistsChinahigh-end manufacturingIndiainfrastructure investmentOpinionThinking About China
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Commentary Despite a number of structural disadvantages, India will likely rival China in terms of global power. This year, India hosted the G-20 conference, which Indian leaders see as recognition that the nation has come of age and is ready to overtake China. India has already surpassed China in population and is hoping to eclipse…
Real Estate Crosscurrents
Commentary After months of decline, May’s report on homebuilding showed a surge in activity. This news gives evidence of the emergence of the crosscurrents that inflation often brings to the residential real estate market. On one side is the depressing effect of rising mortgage rates. Running counter is the attraction of real estate as an…
China’s ‘One-and-Done’ Arms Buyers
Commentary What is the secret to success as an arms exporter? Repeat business. Countries buy arms from certain suppliers for specific reasons: performance, reliability, cost, alliance politics, and so on. An important sign of success as an arms producer is building up a large and reliable overseas customer base—countries that return, year upon year, to…
It’s the Methane, Stupid: Washington Rhetoric on Climate Misses the Biggest Target
June 22, 2023
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Biden ClimateBusiness & MarketsBusiness Columnistseconomic policiesenergyInflation Reduction Act of 2022Marketsmethane emissionsrenewable fuelsUSUS News
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Commentary There are two aspects of the climate policies coming out of Washington and various state capitals that trouble me. The first is that officials set ostensivsely arbitrary and ambitious deadlines with little evidence they can be achieved. I’m always stunned that politicians can march before the microphones and boldly state that “by 2030, we will…
The Free Market as All-Purpose Scapegoat
Commentary The Sunday New York Times a week ago featured a lead, front-page article titled, “Failures of Globalization Shatter Long-Held Beliefs,” rattling off a litany that included COVID, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Trump administration’s tariff-based pushback on China’s economic warfare against the free world, the 40-year-high inflation coinciding with President Joe Biden’s big-spending presidency, global…
Even Two More Rate Hikes Might Not Be the End
From the latest dot plot released by the Federal Reserve, the mode value of funds rate implies two more hikes of a quarter percent by yearend. However, careful examination shows there are more dots below the mode than above. Taking into account the dovish tone by chairman Powell, the market does not believe this and…
China Retreats From Southeast Asia
June 21, 2023
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Business & MarketsBusiness ColumnistsChinaeconomyevergrandeOpinionSoutheast AsiaThinking About China
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Commentary In yet another sign of China’s economic and financial troubles, Beijing has dramatically diminished its financial presence in Southeast Asia. Once preeminent, China finds itself today eclipsed by others. If Xi Jinping and his colleagues in Beijing still dream of global dominance, it must look further away than ever as China retreats from its…
Don’t Let the Fed Pause Become a Fed Surrender to a Higher Inflation Target Rate
June 19, 2023
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benchmark interest rateBusiness & MarketsBusiness Columnistseconomic policieseconomyFederal Reserveinflationpersonal finance
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The Federal Reserve announced on June 14 that it has “paused” its relentless pace of interest-rate hikes for the first time in 15 months. In March,2022, the Fed commenced hikes, then continued as follows: Fed Meeting Rate Increase Target Rate March 15–16, 2022 +25 basis points 0.25–0.5 percent May 3–4, 2022 +50 basis points 0.75–1.0…
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