Category: Business Columnists

A Soft Landing Scenario—Another Fed Myth?

Commentary Optimism is increasing on Wall Street, with investors hoping for a “soft landing” in the economy. “David Kelly, the chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, is betting that inflation will continue to ease in 2023, helping the U.S. economy to narrowly escape a recession. Ed Yardeni, the longtime stock strategist and founder of…


Gen Zers Are Overly Optimistic About Being Wealthy

Commentary Gen Zers, according to a recent Magnify Money survey, are overly optimistic about being wealthy. In fact, according to the survey, they are the most financially optimistic generation. To wit: “Nearly three-quarters (72 percent) of Gen Zers believe they’ll become wealthy one day, making them the most financially optimistic generation.” But, interestingly, that optimism,…


NFIB Survey Suggests a Recession Is Coming

Commentary The most recent survey from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) is sending a strong signal of an economic recession. In 2019, the NFIB survey, combined with an inverted yield curve, suggested an impending recession. In 2020, those signals became a reality. As in 2019, we see many of the same warning signals…


Video Games Are Now the Most Potent of Political Weapons

Commentary Ray Bradbury, one of America’s finest writers of the 20th century, once described video games as “a waste of time for men with nothing else to do.” Humans with “real brains,” he asserted, don’t waste their time on such trivial activities. Tens of millions of Americans would probably beg to differ. Today, rather incredibly,…


US Debt Ceiling: Shutdown, Default, or Extraordinary Measures

Commentary House Democrats refuse spending cuts to keep the United States out of default. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen confirmed on Jan. 19 that the United States has reached its debt ceiling of $31.4 trillion and that the government would have to take extraordinary measures to avoid slipping into default. House Democrats blame the Republicans for not…


Housing Will Remain Depressed

Commentary With the Federal Reserve (Fed) committed to raising interest rates still further, the future of the housing market remains problematic. The higher mortgage rates rise, the less affordable housing will become for the average American. Buying and building will accordingly fall even farther than they already have. In time, however, a counter-trend will likely…


US Household Debt Is Staggering

Commentary U.S. household debt increased by 15.2 percent last year and now stands at 36 percent of the GDP, while household financial savings are at the lowest in 30 years. Household savings fell from 7.3 percent of GDP in 2021 to 4 percent of GDP in 2022. If savings do not increase, consumption and investment…


Cancel the IRS? We Can Only Hope

Commentary While I can’t say I’m supportive of cancel culture, I am incredibly supportive of cancel culture when it is directed at the IRS. Recently the 118th Republican-led Congress introduced “The Family and Small Business Taxpayer Protection Act.” If successful, the bill would abolish the IRS, replacing the income tax (and the income tax code)…


China’s Reopening Will Face Delays

Commentary Beijing has bowed to public pressure and abandoned its Zero-COVID lockdowns and quarantines. The anticipated “reopening” has caused a stir of optimism. However, China’s immediate economic prospects look pretty bad after a tough fourth quarter and with surging COVID-19 cases. The economic lift from the end of Zero-COVID will likely wait until later in…


Cut Russia’s Oil Income, but Keep the Pumps Flowing

Commentary So far, the Russian oil cap is having the desired effect. Russia’s economy is hurting, and the European Union has access to cheap oil. But maintaining the status quo will be a delicate game of financial carrot and stick. Since the war in Ukraine began, the United States, the G-7, the EU, and other…