Commentary One of the most important disciplines in investing, whether personally or professionally, is to look back on investments made and take stock not just of how they performed but why. What decision-making or other avoidable errors led to bad outcomes? What lessons can be learned so that any future mistakes are new and better…
Will the Federal Reserve Hit Its Year-End Inflation Target?
Commentary After driving inflation to double-digits, the Federal Reserve has been adamant about monetary restraint to restore price stability. Can the Fed succeed? If so, at what cost? Further, what needs to be watched to conclude the Fed is achieving its objective? What must occur to conclude the Fed has succeeded? The answers depends on…
Inflation Seems to Be Re-Accelerating
February 16, 2023
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AnalysisBusiness & MarketsBusiness ColumnistsFederal Reserveinflationmoney supplyOpinionrecessionU.S. economyvelocity of money
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Commentary It was a bad week for those promising that our inflation problems are going away. All data from January suggest exactly the opposite. The headlines for consumer prices were all about “cooling,” “firming,” “easing,” “moderating,” and another or so dozen weasel words to disguise the reality that January’s numbers had gained steam over December…
The Case for Risking Default on the Debt
February 16, 2023
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administrative stateAnalysisBusiness & MarketsBusiness Columnistsdebt ceilingdebt defaultFederal Reserveinflationnational debtOpinionpublic debttaxesU.S. economy
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Commentary The same old game is starting all over again. The big spenders in Congress and the administrative state are demanding an increase in the debt limit. Republicans aren’t happy about it. They are demanding some fiscal responsibility. The negotiations begin. But the cards are stacked, and why? Because the bad guys in this drama…
Should We Cheer Booming Retail Sales?
February 15, 2023
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AnalysisBusiness & MarketsBusiness ColumnistsGreat ResetinflationOpinionrecessionretail salesretail spendingU.S. economy
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Commentary This one you simply will not believe. The major business press this morning absolutely cheered to the heavens about the surprise explosion in retail spending in January. As I will show, it’s all a big fakeroo. “The consumer roared back in January,” wrote the Wall Street Journal, “with broadly higher retail spending on vehicles,…
If You Don’t Sell, Did You Lose Money or Not?
Commentary Last year, the stock market was down big. The exchange-traded fund that mimics the tech stocks on Nasdaq (QQQ) was down 19.8 percent. The bond market also took a dive since the Federal Reserve moved aggressively to raise interest rates. For what it is worth, statistically there is only a 9 percent chance of…
UK Has Not Yet Lost to Her European Competitors
February 14, 2023
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BrexitBusiness & MarketsBusiness ColumnistsChinaEuropeEuropean economyHong KongOpinionUKViewpointsWorld
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Commentary There has been prejudice against the European economy. Previously we have discussed the unreasonably bearish outlook on it compared to the rest of the world, such as the U.S. and especially China. Such prejudice is not exactly fake news but is shaped by popular biased views or outlooks, especially by so-called experts. These are…
Will ‘Revenge Spending’ Save China’s Economy?
February 14, 2023
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Business & MarketsBusiness ColumnistsChina’s economyconsumerOpinionrevenge spendingThinking About China
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Commentary Much economic news coming out of China references “revenge spending.” It is a strange use of language. Nowhere in its use does anyone indicate who is getting revenge or on whom. It seems to have emerged from the expectation that heavy consumer spending now that the economy has reopened—spending with a “vengeance”—will overcome other…
You Call This Easing Inflation?
February 14, 2023
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AnalysisBusiness & MarketsBusiness Columnistsconsumer price indexCPIFederal ReserveGreat ResetinflationOpinionrecessionU.S. economy
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Commentary Here’s a thing I like to do on the day of Labor Department data releases. I read the actual release and look at the data and trend lines, then look at the details and see what’s driving the trend. I make a general judgment and write an imaginary headline. Then I check in the…
‘Social Justice Debt’ Is Turning US Businesses Into ‘State-Owned Enterprises’
February 13, 2023
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American companiesBusiness & MarketsBusiness Columnistslocal government funding vehicles (LGFV)Opinionsocial justicestate-owned enterprisesThinking About China
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Commentary “It’s the journey, not the destination, that matters,” goes the old saying with regard to life. Perhaps so. But when it comes to the fate of America’s financial and economic system, the destination is ultimately the only thing that matters. In fact, the journey on which we now find ourselves is actually a preview…
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