Commentary
Ongoing global sanctions will shape and determine the post-Putin era. Economic warfare can easily backfire and turn once pro-American energy dependent countries into pariahs and push Russia toward the United States’ adversaries. The sanctions-triggered geopolitical changes all point in one direction: China.
In the past decades, choking sanctions have repeatedly failed and spawned consequential change in only about 40 percent of cases. The shortcomings were generally the so-called carve-outs, the exemptions. Each individual nation could adjust and exempt rules for their own economic needs. The recently marshalled economic sanction arsenal is a standalone in modern history, but it also triggered unparalleled change in global political dynamics. Energy dependency made nations more vulnerable and willing to find old-new alliances to secure and protect their economies. The carve-outs could be the United States’ new best friend or worst enemy.
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