News Analysis
Several new reports have bolstered the narrative that the U.S. economy might be able to stick a so-called “soft landing,” referring to a scenario in which inflation falls back down to target while a recession is avoided and there’s no meaningful drop in employment.
The two reports—the Business Roundtable’s quarterly CEO economic outlook survey and the National Retail Federation’s (NRF) Monthly Economic Review—paint a picture of an economy that’s cooling but not necessarily falling into a recessionary deep freeze.
“Hard landing” fears were the prevailing narrative at the end of 2022 but those gave way to “soft landing” hopes in the new year before the banking sector turmoil and debt ceiling standoff prompted a fresh round of recession fears….