Commentary
The recent disappointing report on the gross domestic product (GDP) may reflect statistical particulars more than the immediate onset of a recession. But the real thing nonetheless lies on the horizon, probably in the next 18–24 months.
Inflationary pressures are the culprit. They make recession all but inevitable. The downturn will arrive in one of two ways: the Fed’s anti-inflation fight will trouble markets and bring on a recession, as such policies have many times in the past; or if the Fed refuses to fight sufficiently, an unchecked inflation will, in time, produce enough economic distortion to create a recession on its own.
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