Commentary
There is consensus that U.S. House Republicans will win a majority this fall, and Kevin McCarthy will be the next Speaker of the House.
There is a lot more confusion about the U.S. Senate races. Republicans are handwringing and Democrats are hopeful as they think through the state-by-state races for U.S. Senate.
But there’s a flaw in the popular Senate race analysis. Most people are thinking about Senate races as small, individual contests. When you think of each race as small and individual, there is hope the Democrats could keep the current 50-50 split—or lose only a few seats. This kind of small race analysis emphasizes candidate quality, money raised, and current polling (that is inconclusive at best)….