Commentary
The debate about recession risk is pointless. We’re already in a recession. Real gross domestic product (GDP) in the United States declined at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter. The Atlanta Fed Nowcast shows a 1.5 percent contraction in the second quarter. But the underlying figures are scarier.
According to the Atlanta Fed, “The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -1.5 percent on July 15, down from -1.2 percent on July 8.”
That’s an enormous negative change, minus-0.3 percent of GDP, in one week. They go on to say that “the nowcast of second quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 1.9 percent and -13.7 percent, respectively, to 1.5 percent and -13.8 percent, respectively.”…