The odds of the U.S. economy falling into a recession within the next 12 months have surged since June, according to a recent survey of economists by Bloomberg.
According to the survey, the likelihood of an economic downturn over the next year stands at 47.5 percent, a sharp incline from the 30 percent estimate given in June, and a substantial increase from the 20 percent odds given in March.
Bloomberg’s latest survey was conducted from July 8–14 among 34 economists.
Economists also cut estimates for second-quarter growth to a 0.8 percent annualized rate, down from a 3 percent median forecast in June’s survey.
Growth is estimated to be less than 2 percent in the latter half of the year, according to Bloomberg….