The chance that the American economy will fall into a recession by early 2024 has risen to 72 percent, according to a study published on June 15 by Bloomberg Economics.
The report came out just as the Federal Reserve made its largest hike in interest rates since 1994 in an attempt to cool down inflation.
In February 2022, the same models used by Bloomberg downplayed the chance of a recession at the beginning of 2024, forecasting a nearly zero percent chance for such a decline.
By March, the likelihood of a downturn had risen to an estimate of less than 20 percent.
Consumer sentiment is at its lowest level among records dating back to 1978, Bloomberg reported, and sentiment is more pessimistic than at any time since the Great Recession of 2007–2009….